Venezuelan opposition regroups to broker influence in the transition

"The repression that followed Venezuela's presidential elections in July 2024 devastated the internal structures of the parties within the Unitary Platform, the umbrella alliance that brings together the most important Venezuelan opposition parties. These organizations are the political expression of a widespread desire for change in Venezuela and are, in theory, destined to play a leading role in shaping a transition to democracy."

"The general fate of the most important figures within organizations like Popular Will, Justice First, and Vente Venezuela has been exile or imprisonment. The same has befallen some activists from Democratic Action, Citizen Encounter, and Radical Cause. And the situation hasn't improved with the recently approved Amnesty Law, which has placed conditions and difficulties on the return of exiles."

"Diosdado Cabello, a powerful figure within the regime, has kept his word, having prophesied to his adversaries during a legislative debate following Maduro's arrest: We're going to screw them over. Hopefully, this will be the moment for us to have a new opposition in the country, he declared at the time."

Following Venezuela's July 2024 presidential elections, the Unitary Platform opposition alliance experienced devastating repression that dismantled internal party structures. Key opposition figures from Popular Will, Justice First, Vente Venezuela, Democratic Action, and other parties have been imprisoned or forced into exile. Despite passage of an Amnesty Law in the National Assembly, the law includes restrictive conditions limiting exiles' return. Regime officials explicitly targeted opposition leadership, with confiscations and arrests continuing. Smaller, regime-tolerated opposition factions participated in Amnesty Law drafting. The repression has severely depleted opposition political presence within Venezuela, threatening their ability to facilitate democratic transition.

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