"These 440kg of uranium are one of the clearest litmus tests for how this war ends, whether it is a success, said one former senior Israeli defence and intelligence official who worked on Iran. We need to be in a position where either this material is out of Iran, or you have a regime where you are confident that it is safeguarded [inside Iran] in a very meaningful way."
"Israel did not have a realistic plan for regime change when it attacked Iran, multiple Israeli security sources have said, with expectations that airstrikes could lead to a popular uprising having been driven by wishful thinking rather than hard intelligence."
"The overwhelming military dominance of US and Israeli forces in this war is likely to bolster that view if the regime survives. Hardliners in Iran have long argued a nuclear deterrent is the only guarantee of survival for the Islamic republic."
Israel conducted airstrikes on Iran without a concrete plan for regime change, according to Israeli security sources. The expectation that bombing would trigger a popular uprising was driven by optimism rather than solid intelligence. Iran has withstood nearly two weeks of strikes and the assassination of Ayatollah Khamenei, while Trump considers ending the costly conflict. The war's long-term success may hinge on 440kg of enriched uranium buried underground by US strikes in June—enough material for over 10 nuclear warheads. Israeli defense officials emphasize the uranium must either be removed from Iran or secured under a trustworthy regime. The US is reportedly considering a high-risk military mission to secure the material, while previous negotiations included proposals for Iran to transfer it to another country.
#iran-nuclear-program #israel-military-strategy #regime-change-operations #enriched-uranium-security #middle-east-conflict
Read at www.theguardian.com
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