#starting-pitching

#starting-pitching

In 2017, starters averaged five and a half innings per start. Now, there's no such thing as half an inning, but that's the beauty of math. That number dipped slightly in 2018, to 5.4 innings per start. Even ignoring 2020, where teams felt more comfortable and/or harried into just getting through the 60-game season, the innings-per-start value bottomed out at exactly five in 2021.

It's a relatively thin group after MLB's best pitcher. Olson missed most of the second half with a shoulder injury. Mize had an All-Star first half but was up-and-down later in the season. While Flaherty's strikeout and walk profile remained strong, he's coming off his second upper-4.00s ERA in three seasons. Anderson has started two MLB games and hasn't pitched in the majors in five years. Melton has mid-rotation upside but worked mostly out of the bullpen as a rookie.

Some concepts are hits. Some are flops. The experiment to watch this year is almost spiritual in nature: Can professional baseball make starting pitching great again? Baseball's obsession with velocity has dampened the soul of the sport. The marquee pitching matchup is an endangered species. The oohs and aahs over a 100-mph pitch have been replaced by yawns. The potential solution, or at least a piece of one, is evident in this job description:

The Yankees were known to be one of the teams talking with the Marlins about a possible Edward Cabrera trade, but with Cabrera now in a Cubs uniform, the New York Post's Joel Sherman reports that the Bronx Bombers are looking elsewhere for rotation help. The NY Post's Jon Heyman reiterates that the Yankees continue to have trade interest in the Brewers' Freddy Peralta and the Nationals' MacKenzie Gore,

According to FanGraphs' starting pitcher depth chart rankings, the Cardinals have the second-worst rotation in baseball, ahead of only the lowly Colorado Rockies (who just got a boost with Michael Lorenzen). Currently, their starting five consists of Matthew Liberatore, Andre Pallante, Dustin May, Michael McGreevy, and Kyle Leahy. All of those pitchers had an ERA of four-plus last season, and none averaged a strikeout per inning.

The Rockies are in agreement with free agent starter Michael Lorenzen on a one-year, $8MM contract, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. The deal includes a $9MM club option for the 2027 season. It's the first MLB signing of the winter for Colorado, meaning it's Paul DePodesta's first notable pickup as their head of baseball operations. (The Red Sox are now the only team that hasn't signed a big league free agent deal this offseason.)

The Braves likely remain involved in many of the conversations focusing on adding a starting pitcher. And with the added bonus of not having traded away any prospects to feel their offseason needs, they could always pivot to the trade market as well. The good thing is that many avenues remain available for the Braves to strengthen their already strong rotation, even if it could into the new year when the move finally occurs.

He was one of the very best in the game... about a decade ago as a member of the Diamondbacks. At the age of 36, he's still a durable starter good for 5-inning starts and generating ground balls. He has almost no velocity to speak of anymore and has been very hittable. He ranks in the lowest 30th percentile in strikeouts, which is actually the highest he's ranked since the pandemic.

"There's a lot of teams (from which) we have taken incoming calls," president of baseball operations AJ Preller told reporters, as relayed by Acee. "...It's nice when people are calling you, and they have interest in your players. At least then, you have some options. But I think the focus has been on the starting pitching and how do we fill that without taking away from the bullpen or from the lineup."

The Rockies are starting from scratch, and new baseball ops leaders Paul DePodesta and Josh Byrnes have a long list of issues to address. It'll be a yearslong process, but in the short term, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post writes that it's "likely" the team will bring in some short-term help at first base or second base.

The Toronto Blue Jays addressed their pitching by signing Dylan Cease, Cody Ponce and also had Shane Bieber take the option on his contract to play with Toronto in 2026. Both the Boston Red Sox and the Baltimore Orioles have also made moves with the former grabbing Sonny Gray in a trade with the St. Louis Cardinals, and the latter picking up reliever Ryan Helsley off the free agent market while also getting Taylor Ward in a trade with the LA Angels.

The Mets have been perusing the trade market in hopes of bolstering their rotation and have their eye on Twins right-hander as one of several targets, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports. He adds that the Twins like young Mets righty - hardly a surprise, given that Tong is widely regarded as one of the sport's top pitching prospects.

But now comes the task of trying to backfill those innings from departing starting pitchers like Scherzer and Chris Bassitt. The Blue Jays could shop at the top of the market for free agents like Dylan Cease or Framber Valdez, or they could go the Scherzer 2.0 route and target a veteran starting pitcher on a one-year deal to supplant those innings. One pitcher who might make sense for the Blue Jays is another elder statesman of the league: Justin Verlander.

Manager Terry Francona is the latest member of Cincinnati's organization to downplay the possibility of trading starting pitching. Francona said on the Baseball Isn't Boring podcast that he wasn't anticipating a Hunter Greene trade. " I don't think those things are gonna (happen)...pitching is too hard for us to acquire through free agency...we gotta keep Hunter on the mound," Francona said in a clip relayed by Chatterbox Sports.