Next year will be pivotal in British politics, and 7 May will be the point around which things pivot. Elections to local councils, the Scottish parliament and the Welsh Senedd will give millions of voters across the UK a chance to express party preferences. Their verdicts could imperil Labour and Conservative leaders. In Wales, Labour might be sent into opposition for the first time since devolution. Plaid Cymru and Reform UK are set to make substantial gains.
Others are rather less positive. They yell: Stop the boats!' You hear that all the time. But the boats are not an issue here. There are no boats with immigrants coming up the River Taff, the River Rhymney, the River Tywi. Ninety-seven per cent of people in this constituency were born in Britain. The people of Caerphilly go to the polls on Thursday to elect a new Senedd (Welsh parliament) member after the sudden death of Labour's Hefin David.
Viewed through the Westminster prism, UK electoral politics seems a five-party contest. The narrative has been well aired in the conference season. The three established parties Labour, Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are each battling to peg back the Reform UK surge, with the Greens hovering in the wings. In Scotland and Wales, however, there are different pictures that the Westminster prism does not see.
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