"According to the McKinsey Center for Future Mobility (MCFM)'s study "Don't miss the bus: New strategies for European bus and coach OEMs", annual zero-emission (ZE) city bus sales will "increase twofold by 2030-from 9,000 today to between 18,000 and 21,000-to meet emissions targets." Sales for ZE intercity buses and coaches are expected to follow a similar trajectory, with city bus sales projected to reach 22,000-24,000 units annually by 2035 under current regulatory assumptions."
"These figures are based on the European Commission's tailpipe emission reduction policy, though formal revisions are scheduled for 2026, which could influence the final requirements. The study also notes that public transport accounted for approximately 15 percent of passenger kilometers traveled (PKT) in 2023, with buses responsible for more than half of that share, and forecasts a modest increase in public transport PKT to 17 percent by 2035."
Annual zero-emission city-bus sales are projected to increase from about 9,000 today to between 18,000 and 21,000 by 2030, and to 22,000–24,000 by 2035 under current regulatory assumptions. Projections include vehicles over eight tons such as minibuses and vans. European tailpipe emission reduction policy underpins these targets, with formal revisions planned for 2026 that could alter requirements. Public transport accounted for roughly 15 percent of passenger kilometers traveled (PKT) in 2023, with buses providing more than half of that share, and public-transport PKT is expected to rise to 17 percent by 2035. Private-car PKT is expected to decline from 75 percent to 68 percent as shared mobility and micromobility increase. Chinese OEMs have captured about 21 percent of the zero-emission bus segment, competing mainly on lower price ranges.
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