Superintelligence? No, but AI will still mean big changes

"The Forecasting Research Institute (FRI) has published a report [PDF] titled "The Longitudinal Expert AI Panel" that attempts to distill the forecasts of knowledgeable folk - mainly men - in industry, academia, and policy about the capabilities, adoption, and impact of AI in the years ahead. The research project, led by Ezra Karger, an economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, suggests that few AI experts believe "superintelligence" as outlined by the likes of Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei will arrive anytime soon."

""The median expert foresees that by 2030 AI will be responsible for 7 percent of US electricity usage, assist in 18 percent of work hours in the US, and provide daily companionship for 15 percent of adults - roughly 7x, 4x, and 2.5x current levels, respectively," the report says. A year ago, between 1 and 5 percent of all US work hours were assisted by generative AI, according to an economic paper, " The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI.""

"FRI's report also finds about 20 percent of ride-hailing trips will involve autonomous vehicles by the start of the next decade, panelists predict; among the general public, the expectation is that only 12 percent of ride-hailing trips will involve robocars by 2030. Those surveyed see no end to the spending: annual global private investment is projected to reach $260 billion, up from $130 billion in 2024. The experts appear to be none too concerned about the popping of what looks a lot like an AI investment bubble."

339 respondents from industry, academia, and policy participated, primarily men. Few AI experts expect superintelligence as characterized by Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei to arrive soon. The median expert foresees that by 2030 AI will use 7 percent of US electricity, assist in 18 percent of US work hours, and provide daily companionship for 15 percent of adults, representing substantial increases over current levels. A year earlier, generative AI assisted between 1 and 5 percent of US work hours. Panelists predict about 20 percent of ride-hailing trips will be autonomous by 2030 while the public expects 12 percent. Annual global private investment is projected to reach $260 billion, up from $130 billion in 2024, and experts appear unconcerned about an AI investment bubble.

Read at Theregister