Google Was the Next Nvidia All Along, but It Might Be Making a Big Mistake
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Google Was the Next Nvidia All Along, but It Might Be Making a Big Mistake
"Alphabet has the rare full stack. Search and YouTube remain two of the most-visited destinations online. Cloud is compounding at 63% growth on $20.03 billion in quarterly revenue, sitting on a $462 billion backlog. Gemini lives inside the API, the consumer app, and Search itself."
"Alphabet just posted $109.90 billion in quarterly revenue, beat consensus EPS by 94.1% at $5.11, and expanded operating margin to 36.1%. Cloud operating income tripled to $6.6 billion, and revenue from products built on Gemini grew nearly 800% year over year."
"Spending $180 billion to $190 billion in a single year only works if the demand on the other side is real, durable, and priced to clear. Q1's headline net income was flattered by $36.91 billion in unrealized equity gains from the Anthropic stake. Strip that out and core earnings look ordinary against the spend."
"Capex hit 78% of operating cash flow in Q1, well above the historical norm near 35-40%, and the CFO openly warned of higher depreciation and data center energy costs ahead. Long-term debt has quadrupled since 2024 and the cash-to-debt ratio has"
Alphabet generated $109.90 billion in quarterly revenue, beat consensus EPS by 94.1% to $5.11, and expanded operating margin to 36.1%. Cloud revenue grew 63% to $20.03 billion per quarter, with a $462 billion backlog and operating income tripling to $6.6 billion. Products built on Gemini grew nearly 800% year over year, and Gemini is integrated across APIs, consumer apps, and Search. Valuation is supported by a forward P/E of 28 alongside 21.8% revenue growth and 82% earnings growth, with most analysts rating the stock Buy or Strong Buy. Risks include capex more than doubling year over year, free cash flow falling 46.6%, 2026 capex guidance of $180 billion to $190 billion, and long-term debt rising to $90.5 billion by March 2026.
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