JPMorgan Cuts McDonald's Price Target to $305: Is the Same-Store-Sales Story Stalling?

"JPMorgan lowered its price target on McDonald's stock to $305 from $325 while maintaining its Overweight rating, citing softer same-store-sales assumptions but flagging a strategic shift the firm views as constructive for long-term returns. The move follows KeyBanc's price target cut to $330 from $345 last week, signaling that the Street is recalibrating expectations on the burger giant even as the bull case remains intact."

"JPMorgan reduced its McDonald's same-store-sales estimates to reflect the current environment, a nod to the softer consumer backdrop weighing on quick-service restaurants. However, the firm argued that McDonald's "improving existing unit performance outweighs previous attention on capital intensive new unit growth." That framing is significant. Building new stores consumes capital and adds top-line growth, while optimizing existing restaurants requires far less investment and can lift margins."

"McDonald's posted a solid Q1 FY2026 print on May 7, delivering EPS of $2.83 against a $2.74 consensus and revenue of $6.52 billion, up 9% year over year. Global comparable sales rose 4%, with U.S. comps up 4% on positive check growth. CEO Chris Kempczinski stated, "McDonald's is not going to get beat on value and affordability." The loyalty platform now spans 70 markets with trailing twelve-month systemwide loyalty sales above $38 billion."

JPMorgan lowered its McDonald’s price target to $305 from $325 while keeping an Overweight rating, citing softer same-store-sales assumptions. KeyBanc also cut its target to $330 from $345, indicating recalibrated expectations. The emphasis remains on improving existing unit performance rather than prioritizing capital-intensive new unit growth. Optimizing current restaurants requires less investment and can lift margins, supporting a higher-return capital allocation profile. McDonald’s reported Q1 FY2026 results with EPS of $2.83 versus $2.74 consensus and revenue of $6.52 billion, up 9% year over year. Global comparable sales rose 4%, with U.S. comps up 4% driven by positive check growth. The company highlighted value and affordability, and its loyalty platform expanded to 70 markets with trailing twelve-month systemwide loyalty sales above $38 billion.

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