"Vistra's Q3 revenue of $4.97 billion fell 19.3% short of the $6.16 billion consensus estimate. That's a significant gap. The miss was driven partly by lower unrealized mark-to-market gains on derivatives and the impact of a Martin Lake Unit 1 outage. Yet beneath the headline disappointment, the company demonstrated solid operational footing. Free cash flow came in at $923 million, and operating cash flow reached $1.35 billion. These metrics reflect the core business running well despite the revenue headwind."
"What matters more right now is what Vistra sees ahead. The company narrowed its 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $5.7 billion to $5.9 billion for ongoing operations. More important, it initiated 2026 guidance at $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion, representing 22% to 29% growth from the midpoint of 2025 guidance. That's a meaningful acceleration, and management wouldn't project it if they weren't confident in the catalysts driving it."
Vistra reported Q3 2025 revenue of $4.97 billion, a 19.3% shortfall versus the $6.16 billion consensus, driven by lower unrealized mark-to-market gains and a Martin Lake Unit 1 outage. Net income declined to $652 million from $1.84 billion, largely due to accounting-driven mark-to-market swings on derivatives. Free cash flow was $923 million and operating cash flow $1.35 billion, indicating strong core operations and improved realized energy and capacity prices. Management narrowed 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $5.7–$5.9 billion and initiated 2026 guidance at $6.8–$7.6 billion, reflecting expected 22–29% growth. Strategic moves include acquiring seven gas plants, building two Texas gas units, and securing a 20-year PPA for Comanche Peak, supported by a $1 billion share buyback authorization.
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