The real trouble with the Fed's jobs data turmoil
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The real trouble with the Fed's jobs data turmoil
"Private firms will always have data limitations and conflicting goals that mean you can't rely on them to produce data that's maximally reliable, consistent over long periods of time, and available to everyone making economic decisions."
"For years, ADP has granted the Fed access to data on its clients' private-sector payrolls, which has become a useful supplement to government employment data - and more granular than the monthly numbers ADP releases to the public."
"at timely data that Federal Reserve staff maintains in collaboration with the employment services firm ADP to construct a measure of weekly payroll employment,"
ADP provided the Fed with confidential, high-frequency payroll data on its private-sector clients, creating a more granular supplement to government employment statistics. Fed governor Christopher Waller referenced Federal Reserve staff's collaboration with ADP to construct a weekly payroll employment measure that showed late-July deterioration. ADP suspended the data-sharing relationship after the citation, and both ADP and the Fed declined to comment. The suspension highlights that private data providers have commercial incentives different from government agencies, and they can withdraw or limit access. Large firms like Bank of America, Visa, and Mastercard also sell client-derived economic indicators, often as side projects rather than primary missions.
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