"Temperatures below the surface in parts of the Pacific Ocean are currently 7 percent above normal in some places, which is "more heat at this stage of an El Nino's development than has been observed in the modern record.""
""a strong El Nino event [is] a virtual certainty," at this point, and he has it officially forecast as a 50 percent chance of being the strongest El Nino in 140 years."
"Well, the strongest El Ninos on record here, in the winters of 1982-83 and 1997-98, meant we saw double the usual amount of rainfall here, and Australia meanwhile saw more extreme heat and drought during their summer."
"The intensity of the warming that is going on in the Pacific could shift the direction of storms as well A super El Nino was also predicted for the winter of 2023-24, and while that winter was indeed wet in the Bay Area, it was nothing compared to 1997-98, showing the variability in these events."
Forecasts describe a developing “super” El Nino in the Pacific, with forecast models aligning on a dramatic outcome. Subsurface Pacific temperatures are reported to be about 7% above normal in some areas, representing more heat at this stage than seen in the modern record. A strong El Nino is described as nearly certain, with an official forecast of a 50% chance of being the strongest in 140 years. For Northern California, the strongest El Ninos on record brought about double the usual rainfall, while Australia experienced extreme heat and drought. Storm tracks may shift as Pacific warming intensifies, and late-summer or fall cyclones could occur, including events like Hurricane Hilary that affected Southern California and the Desert Southwest.
#el-nino #pacific-ocean-temperatures #northern-california-rainfall #storm-track-changes #climate-forecasting
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