Earth's worst-case climate scenario will see temperature rise by 3.5C

"Scientists say that the newly defined 'high emissions' scenario could lead to 'enormous climate impacts'. Lead author Professor Detlef van Vuuren, from the University of Utrecht, says these include 'strong sea level rise, more extreme weather events, and impacts on crop yields'. Professor van Vuuren told the Daily Mail that this scenario would put the planet at risk of passing so-called 'tipping points', beyond which recovery is not possible."

"This warming could even trigger 'major impacts' on key ocean currents such as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, even with these new models, the outcome of this worst-case scenario is not entirely certain. If the climate is more sensitive to greenhouse gases than scientists predict, Professor van Vuuren says the climate could be closer to 4°C (7.2°F) warmer."

"The scenario is the work of the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP), an international steering committee of 20 scientific experts. The researchers worked together to update the scientific scenarios which form the basis for how supercomputers will model the future climate. These models will also be the foundation of the next major assessment from the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which will set the tone for global environmental policy."

"'Scenarios are used in climate science to explore possible futures in order to answer specific questions,' Professor van Vuuren explains. 'Key questions the set aims to answer are what happens under current policy, what is needed to meet our climate goals, and what could be a low-probability but high-risk outcome.' The 'high-emissions scenario' aims to tackle that last questi"

Global climate projections have been updated for worst-case pathways. A newly defined high-emissions scenario could produce enormous climate impacts by 2100, including strong sea level rise, more extreme weather events, and impacts on crop yields. The scenario raises the risk of passing tipping points beyond which recovery is not possible. Warming could also trigger major impacts on key ocean currents such as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Even with updated models, the worst-case outcome remains uncertain. If the climate is more sensitive to greenhouse gases than expected, warming could be closer to 4°C by 2100. These scenarios support future supercomputer modeling and the next IPCC assessment.

Read at Mail Online