What the El Nino weather pattern means for your summer weather

"Meteorologist Matt Makens of Makens Weather warns that the pace of this transition mirrors the 1997 weather pattern. As ocean temperatures in the Pacific climb over one degree C above normal or more, the agricultural community is being told to prepare for an "impact magnifier" that could define the 2026 growing season."

"For farmers in dry zones, the immediate concern is the lack of moisture recovery in the soil. Makens notes that dry conditions often create a self-perpetuating cycle, where the atmosphere effectively "eats" any incoming moisture before it can fall as rain for parched ground."

"While the Western Prairies and U.S. Plains face immediate heat and record-breaking temperature potential, Eastern Canada and the Northeastern U.S. are experiencing a cooler, more volatile spring. For the east, "herky-jerky" summer precipitation patterns are expected as El Niño establishes itself, he says."

"Makins notes that while Eastern Canada is starting off cooler with frequent moisture over the next few weeks, the West is bracing for a "bullseye of red" on the temperature maps. "Soil for me is top of mind," Makens says. "It didn't recover in the winter, it's not recovering now, by and large.""

Meteorologists confirm a rapid shift toward an El Niño pattern across North America, following a winter that was historically dry and snowless in much of the Western United States and parts of Western Canada, leaving low soil moisture. Other parts of Western Canada and Eastern Ontario trended from very cool to cold. The transition pace resembles 1997, with Pacific ocean temperatures rising more than one degree Celsius above normal. Dry zones face limited soil moisture recovery, because incoming moisture can be absorbed by the atmosphere before it falls as rain. Western Prairies and U.S. Plains may see heat and record-breaking temperatures, while Eastern Canada and the Northeastern U.S. may experience a cooler, more volatile spring and “herky-jerky” summer precipitation. The strength of El Niño will shape how quickly too-dry or too-wet conditions intensify.

Read at Realagriculture