"There's a whiff of the first Lisbon Treaty off this presidential election campaign. The previous Nice Treaty referendum defeat in 2001 was a bolt from the blue, caused by a complacent government. Nobody saw it coming. Lisbon I in 2008 had this forewarning and yet it still happened. The government and establishment lined up to tell the electorate that the EU treaty was in Ireland's interests, without really explaining what that meant."
"The massed ranks of the left and even some on the right threw the kitchen sink at the treaty, with everything from abortion to a European army being put up as a reason to vote against. The Yes side was constantly fighting fires, as the No side cast doubts and offered the hope of renegotiation as a reason to vote against. When retired politicians were being rolled out to endorse Heather Humphreys this last week, it was reminiscent of a tactic of past referendums."
There are clear parallels between the presidential election campaign and earlier Lisbon Treaty referendums, where complacency produced surprising defeats. The Nice Treaty referendum in 2001 was an unexpected bolt from the blue caused by a complacent government, and Lisbon I in 2008 repeated the pattern despite forewarning. Government and establishment endorsements asserted EU treaty benefits without adequately explaining specifics. Opponents across the political spectrum mobilised diverse arguments, from abortion to a European army, creating a persistent barrage that forced the pro-side into constant damage control. The deployment of retired politicians to endorse candidates echoes tactics used in past referendums.
Read at Independent
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