"The Russian invasion of Ukraine that began in January 2022 is now approaching its fourth year. The cost for Ukraine has been very high, but the cost for Russia has been astronomical. Russian forces have been pushed back nearly to the territory they controlled at the end of 2021. According to British Intelligence, by October 14, 2025, Russian casualties (killed and wounded) since January 2022 totaled 1,118,000 military personnel."
"In short, Russia has lost more than twice its entire 1992 army force structure since the invasion. Yet the Russian army continues to engage in desperate efforts to regain limited territory to the west. British intelligence estimates that since the start of 2025 Russia has suffered 332,000 casualties, the highest loss rate since the invasion. Russia has made only marginal gains, which Putin trumpets as victories as he throws more men and equipment into the Ukraine meatgrinder."
Russian forces have incurred catastrophic personnel and equipment losses since January 2022, with British intelligence estimating 1,118,000 casualties and Ukrainian estimates showing comparable figures. Reported equipment losses include over 11,000 tanks, 23,345 armored combat vehicles, and 33,628 artillery systems, exceeding prewar inventories and amounting to more than twice the 1992 army force structure. Russia continued offensive operations into 2025, suffering 332,000 casualties that year alone while making only marginal territorial gains. Command and control remain highly centralized under Vladimir Putin, which discourages initiative, punishes bad news, and rewards reported successes, incentivizing risky and costly operations.
Read at The Cipher Brief
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