"At this point of the season, monitoring the pick availability in your group is critical, especially in a week where one team projects as the overwhelming chalk. The Houston Texans are being picked in over half of remaining Eliminator entries early in the week. They are available for 58% of Eliminator Challenge entries, but that will vary for each group. The more teams that have the Texans available, the more valuable fading them becomes."
"Two weeks ago, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were in a similar situation, getting about 50% of selection against the New Orleans Saints. The Buccaneers lost that game outright. However, while the Buccaneers were 8.5-point favorites, the Texans are laying 14.5, making it much less likely that fading them pays off."
"Outside of the Texans, the only other double-digit favorites are the Buffalo Bills. If available, the Bills are the preferred option as big favorites at low selection. If not, there is a significant drop-off in win probability to the next-best teams where it's hard to avoid taking Houston. The Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles and Saints are the best of the rest, but all carry more risk."
Eliminator Challenge requires picking one team each week; a win or tie advances the entry, a loss eliminates it, and the same team cannot be chosen twice. Late-season pick availability in a group is crucial because heavy selection on a single favorite raises the strategic value of fading that favorite. The Houston Texans are early-week picks in over half of remaining entries and are available in 58% of entries overall, while they are 14.5-point favorites. The Buffalo Bills are another double-digit favorite but sit at only 13% availability, making them the preferred low-selection play if accessible. If the Bills are unavailable, options fall to riskier choices like the Lions, Eagles and Saints.
Read at ESPN.com
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