"Fannie Mae economists are more conservative than those at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), who this week projected $2 trillion in single-family origination volume for 2025 during the trade group's annual convention. With the Federal Reserve expected to continue cutting interest rates the central bank's next meeting concludes Oct. 29 Fannie Mae economists still anticipate mortgage rates will fall to 5.9% in 2026, unchanged from September's outlook."
"Fannie Mae also revised its home sales expectations. It now projects 4.74 million home sales in 2025, up from 4.72 million previously. The 2026 forecast remains unchanged at 5.16 million. In our quarterly update to our house price forecast, we now expect home price growth to be 2.5% and 1.3% in 2025 and 2026 on a Q4/Q4 basis, respectively, compared to 2.8% and 1.1% in our prior forecast, the group wrote."
Fannie Mae economists take a more conservative outlook than MBA forecasters, expecting mortgage rates to decline to 5.9% in 2026. The 2026 single-family origination forecast was reduced slightly to $2.32 trillion from $2.35 trillion. Home sales are projected at 4.74 million in 2025 (up from 4.72 million) and 5.16 million in 2026. Q4/Q4 home price growth is now expected at 2.5% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026. The ESR Group raised real GDP growth to 1.9% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026, while CPI forecasts are 2.9% in Q4 2025 and 2.7% in 2026.
Read at www.housingwire.com
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