"What's expected? The Opta supercomputer makes Chelsea strong favourites ahead of the game, with 10,000 data-led simulations leading to the Blues being assigned a 72.5% chance of victory. Ajax's win probability stands at a lowly 11.7%. Only Olympiacos (9.9% at Barcelona) and Club Brugge (10.5% at Bayern Munich) are given a lower probability of a win on matchday three, while 15.8% of simulations finished level."
"With a 5% chance of lifting the trophy for a third time, Chelsea are the model's eighth favourites to win the Champions League, making the last 16 in 79% of projections. Ajax only get that far in 2.7% of simulations, while they fail to even make the knockout-stage play-offs in 87.5% of our tournament predictions. This will be the third European meeting between Chelsea and Ajax, who previously faced off twice in the group stage of the 2019-20 Champions League."
Less than a month ago, Enzo Maresca faced pressure after back-to-back Premier League defeats to Manchester United and Brighton and a Champions League loss at Bayern Munich. Chelsea then responded with three consecutive victories either side of the international break, including a win over Benfica, improving their Champions League standing. Ajax sit 35th in the 36-team table after back-to-back defeats and are struggling under John Heitinga. Opta simulations give Chelsea a 72.5% chance of victory and an estimated 5% chance to win the Champions League; Ajax have an 11.7% win probability and only 2.7% chance to reach the last 16.
Read at Soccer News
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