Chip Stocks Are Bleeding Today. The 2018 and 2022 Selloffs Tell You Exactly What Comes Next

"SOXX fell 3.2% intraday, AMD dropped 2.3%, and Intel got hit hardest at down 6.8%. NVIDIA ( NASDAQ:NVDA) was the lone holdout, closing up 0.6% to $220.78. This kind of broad semiconductor flush is exactly the moment Wall Street starts pulling up old charts."

"The PHLX Semiconductor Index fell roughly 25% from October to December that year as the Fed tightened, the China trade war escalated, and smartphone demand cratered. NVIDIA caught the worst of it: the stock fell 54% in the fourth quarter of 2018 alone, from $7.17 to $3.31 on a split-adjusted basis. The catalyst was a crypto mining inventory glut layered on top of macro fear, and the bottom came in late December."

"Intel, interestingly, barely participated. INTC actually finished Q4 2018 up 1.7% because the data center build-out was still intact and Intel was the default CPU. That dispersion matters: not every chip stock trades the same selloff the same way. When the secular driver under one name stays solid, that name decouples."

"What followed the 2018 bottom is the part bulls remember. The SOX more than doubled over the next 18 months as 5G capex ramped and Nvidia's data center business started showing up in earnings. The 2022 selloff was uglier and longer. SOX dropped roughly 36% peak to t"

Semiconductor equities experienced a broad decline, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF down 3.2% intraday, AMD down 2.3%, and Intel down 6.8%, while NVIDIA was the only notable gainer, up 0.6%. The selloff is framed as a moment when traders revisit historical chip-cycle patterns. The late-2018 drawdown saw the PHLX Semiconductor Index fall about 25% from October to December amid Fed tightening, escalating trade tensions, and a collapse in smartphone demand, with NVIDIA dropping 54% in Q4 2018. Intel showed relative resilience, finishing Q4 2018 up 1.7% due to ongoing data center build-out. After that bottom, the sector rebounded strongly as 5G capex ramped and NVIDIA’s data center results improved. The 2022 bear market is described as a longer, more severe reset involving inventory and a pause in capex.

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