"Rigetti Computing ( Nasdaq: RGTI) reports after the close. The stock trades as a high-beta proxy on progress toward practical quantum advantage, so tonight's focus is less about headline beats and more about proof points on chiplet-based scaling, fidelity, and speed. Management has framed a three-to-four-year journey to quantum advantage, with 2025 positioned as a year to cross the 100-plus-qubit threshold while sustaining 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity. Commercial momentum remains concentrated in government and research contracts, leaving quarterly revenue sensitive to program timing and U.S. policy flow."
"Chiplet performance, fidelity, and speed- Management disclosed Cepheus-1-36Q, a four-chiplet system hitting 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity, plus a plan to release a 100-plus-qubit chiplet system at the same fidelity before year-end. They also indicated gate speeds are trending from ~70 ns toward the 50-60 ns range, with sub-50 ns as a target for data-center-class hybrid computing. Updates here are core to the thesis."
"Timeline to quantum advantage- Rigetti continues to frame the requirement set as roughly 1,000+ qubits, 99.9% two-qubit fidelity, <50-ns gate speeds, and real-time error correction, with a ~4-year path viewed as the fastest realistic industry timeline. Any acceleration signals or intermediate milestones will matter for sentiment."
Cepheus-1-36Q is a four-chiplet system achieving 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity. A 100-plus-qubit chiplet system at comparable fidelity is planned before year-end. Gate speeds are improving from roughly 70 ns toward the 50–60 ns range, with sub‑50 ns targeted for data-center-class hybrid computing. Quantum advantage requirements are framed as about 1,000+ qubits, 99.9% two-qubit fidelity, <50-ns gate speeds, and real-time error correction, with a roughly four-year timeline. Commercial momentum is concentrated in U.S. and U.K. government and research programs, making near-term revenue sensitive to program timing and appropriations.
Read at 24/7 Wall St.
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