"It suggests that Trump administration and Federal Reserve officials who see the war on inflation as pretty much won are out of step with voters, who want to see prices fall (though that implies economy-wide deflation, which can be highly unpleasant in its own ways). Between the lines: Republicans learned a dire lesson about economic vibes on Tuesday: You can't convince people your policies are working if they're paying 20% more for a cup of coffee."
"State of play: The economy, in a lot of ways, is just fine. Growth is robust, inflation is a fraction of what it was, and the labor market is, for now, in a (tenuous) equilibrium. Yes, but: The vibes are awful and getting worse. The thing that doomed Democrats in 2024 hasn't gotten particularly better since. By the numbers: Headline inflation has been 3% over the last year, not a particularly scary rate."
Trump administration and Federal Reserve officials view the war on inflation as largely won, but voters still demand falling prices rather than modestly reduced inflation. Headline inflation has been about 3% over the last year, but cumulative price increases are producing ongoing sticker shock. Grocery prices are up 29.2% since February 2020, primary residence rents roughly the same, and household energy costs are up 40%. Frequently purchased items surged in 2025: coffee is 20% more than a year ago and ground beef 15% more. Exit polling showed economy-focused voters backed Democrats in recent races, signaling political vulnerability for Republicans.
Read at Axios
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