"Wall Street's top parlor game took a sudden turn on Monday, when the prediction market Kalshi showed Kevin Warsh is now the frontrunner to be nominated as the next Federal Reserve chairman, overtaking Kevin Hassett. Warsh, a former Fed governor, now has a 47% probability, up from 39% on Sunday and just 11% on Dec. 3. Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, has fallen to 41%, down from 51% on Sunday and 81% on Dec. 3."
"A report from CNBC saying Hassett's candidacy was running into pushback from people close to President Donald Trump seemed to put Warsh on top. The resistance stems from concerns Hassett is too close to Trump. That followed Trump's comment late Friday, when he told The Wall Street Journal Warsh was at the top of his list, though he added "the two Kevins are great.""
"According to the Journal, Trump met Warsh on Wednesday at the White House and pressed him on whether he could be trusted to back rate cuts. The report surprised Wall Street, which had overwhelming odds on Hassett as the favorite, lifting Warsh's odds from the cellar. But even prior to the Journal story, there have been rumblings in the finance world Hassett wasn't their preferred choice to be Fed chair."
Prediction market Kalshi shows Kevin Warsh as the frontrunner for the next Federal Reserve chair with a 47% probability, up from 39% on Sunday and 11% on Dec. 3. Kevin Hassett's odds declined to 41%, down from 51% on Sunday and 81% on Dec. 3. CNBC reported pushback from people close to President Donald Trump over concerns Hassett is too close to the president. Trump told The Wall Street Journal Warsh was at the top of his list and met Warsh at the White House to press him on backing rate cuts. Jamie Dimon signaled support for Warsh.
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