"This week, Republicans encountered yet another round of roadblocks in Texas and Indiana. The two states once seemed likely to help the Republicans flip as many as seven Democratic-held districts combined, but after a federal court ruled against the new Texas map and Indiana failed to redraw its map, it suddenly seems possible that Republicans might not gain even a single district in these states."
"Cohn estimated that before all this activity Republicans could lose the national House popular vote by 0.2 percent and still retain control of the House. With new maps in place in California, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas and Utah, that cushion increased to 0.9 percent - enough to really matter in a close national midterm election. If the adverse judicial decision earlier this week nukes the new Texas map, the GOP advantage would turn into a Democratic advantage of 0.6 percent."
Republican efforts to redraw congressional maps following Donald Trump's summer push aimed to create a substantial GOP advantage for the 2026 midterms. Judicial rulings and failed redraws in Texas and Indiana have blocked those plans, eliminating the expected pickups in Democratic-held districts. With new maps enacted in several states, the GOP briefly held a 0.9 percent national House popular-vote cushion, but the possible nullification of Texas's map would flip that to a 0.6 percent Democratic advantage. Additional opposing gerrymanders in Florida and Virginia could leave Democrats with about a 0.5 percent edge, making a modest Democratic midterm swing sufficient to flip the House.
Read at Intelligencer
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