"During Liberation Day (April 2nd, 2025) and the subsequent trade war period (until May 12th, 2025), prices increased at a rate of up to 2.04% per two-week period, more than five times the baseline rate of 0.39%. Nearly 43% of all tracked products showed price increases during the trade war period. Unilateral tariffs had a minimal impact, with an average increase of only 0.44%. Actual supply chain disruptions from Red Sea shipping attacks produced no measurable price effects. 21% of product categories that experienced the April price spikes later reverted to below-baseline prices."
""It is clear from the research conducted that trade war policy announcements may have a previously underappreciated effect on prices," said Adomas Šulcas, the project's Lead Researcher. "While a corporate greed narrative may seem enticing, our findings are just as important to policymakers.""
""Over the six weeks of the 2025 trade war, U.S. consumers paid elevated prices on goods already purchased at pre-tariff costs. Yet, putting the entire blame on retailers would be akin to blaming investors for selling stocks during periods of financial uncertainty. There were other market forces at play, and policymakers should adapt accordingly.""
Reciprocal tariffs during the 2025 US-China trade war triggered average consumer price increases of 1.8% and peaks of 2.04% per two-week period, appearing weeks before tariffed goods reached shelves. Price tracking covered 1,900 consumer products across 19 categories from September 2024 to August 2025. Nearly 43% of tracked products showed price increases during the trade war period, while unilateral tariffs produced only a 0.44% average increase. Red Sea shipping attacks produced no measurable price effects. Twenty-one percent of categories that spiked in April later reverted to below-baseline prices, and tariff announcement manner influenced price behavior.
Read at London Business News | Londonlovesbusiness.com
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