Trump's Redistricting Race Is Already Going Off the Rails

"With all the appalling things going on every day in Donald Trump's America, it's tempting to view the nationwide scramble to redraw congressional maps before the 2026 midterms as just another typical incident of partisan gamesmanship. But it's actually quite unusual. Since at least since the beginning of the 20th century, states rarely conducted redistricting other than after the decennial Census and the subsequent reapportionment of U.S. House seats between the states."

"So when President Donald Trump ordered Texas Republicans to suddenly upturn the state's congressional map because he knew his party was likely to lose control of the House in 2026, it was a very big deal. And when he subsequently ordered Republicans to do the same thing in every single state where they had the power to pull off such blatant, minority-disenfranchising power grabs, it touched off a wild arms race between the two parties that may not subside until candidate filing deadlines for 2026 have passed."

"Having flipped up to five House seats in Texas, and one in Missouri, Republicans are now looking at the possibility of rewriting maps in Ohio, Indiana, Kansas, Florida, Louisiana, and South Carolina. Democrats are retaliating with a big redistricting push in California, also aimed at netting five seats, which will be approved or vetoed by voters on November 4. Democrats in Maryland, Illinois, and New York are thinking about joining the gerrymandering jamboree."

Mid-decade redistricting has surged nationwide after President Donald Trump directed Republicans to redraw maps to avert anticipated 2026 House losses. Mid-decade redistricting historically has been rare outside decennial Census reapportionment, with notable past exceptions including court orders and the 2003 Tom DeLay-engineered Texas plan that provoked scandal. The recent push flipped up to five Texas seats and one in Missouri and has Republicans eyeing map changes in Ohio, Indiana, Kansas, Florida, Louisiana, and South Carolina. Democrats are countering with an aggressive redistricting initiative in California and contemplating similar moves in Maryland, Illinois, and New York. Virginia Democrats are reportedly exploring a sudden effort to flip two or three seats.

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