What smart people are saying about inflation as the war in Iran presses on

"It's pretty safe to say that barring some really surprising reversal here, we're going to see a pretty decent increase in the March CPI. Then April and beyond, I think, are more open to debate. Certainly, there are categories like airfares that you see some pass through, but most estimates suggest almost a trivial impact on non-energy goods and services."

"Oil prices passed $100 a barrel on Sunday after the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz cut off crude shipments from the Persian Gulf. While prices dropped to around $85 a barrel on Tuesday after President Donald Trump signaled that he thought the war could soon end, ongoing volatility across markets indicates that fears of inflation are still high."

Oil prices surged past $100 a barrel following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting Persian Gulf crude shipments. Prices subsequently declined to around $85 after President Trump indicated the war could end soon, though market volatility persists. Wall Street strategists warn of potential inflation impacts if elevated oil prices continue. J.P. Morgan's chief economist expects a notable increase in March CPI data, with limited effects on core inflation excluding energy. The February CPI release will not yet reflect war-induced oil price effects. Economists debate whether impacts will extend beyond March and April.

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