This isn't a real ceasefire in Gaza it's a holding pattern before war returns | Sanam Vakil

"This is not the first violation since it came into effect on 10 October, but rather one of many over past weeks showcasing that without stronger enforcement mechanisms and determined planning this is a ceasefire in name only. According to Israel, this round of violence resulted from Hamas fire against IDF forces in Rafah, an area still under Israeli control, resulting in the death of an IDF reservist."

"With each side interpreting violations to suit its own interests, the ceasefire's vague structure leaves a wide margin for miscalculation and opportunism. The ceasefire was introduced within the framework of Donald Trump's 20-point plan for ending the war. Indeed, ending the war has been celebrated as an important step forward that has seen Israeli forces partially pull back, and hostages and prisoners exchanged."

"However, the main problem is that the plan remains largely undeveloped. It offers no clear timeline, verification process or credible means of enforcement. Moreover, few details of the second phase of the ceasefire which should include a complete Israeli withdrawal, the formation of a technocratic administration in Gaza and the deployment of an international stabilisation mission have yet been agreed."

Israel's recent airstrikes in Gaza killed over 100 people and exposed the fragility of the ceasefire that took effect on 10 October. Violations have occurred repeatedly, with each side blaming the other and interpreting incidents to suit its interests. Israel said the strikes followed Hamas fire that killed an IDF reservist in Rafah; Hamas denied involvement. The ceasefire was introduced under a 20-point plan but remains largely undeveloped, lacking timeline, verification, and enforcement mechanisms. Key elements of a second phase—full Israeli withdrawal, a technocratic Gaza administration, and an international stabilization mission—remain unagreed, while hostage conditions and collapsing infrastructure worsen the humanitarian crisis.

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