Migration is getting riskier even as progress is made

"Adopted in 2018, the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration is the first international agreement aimed at making migration safer and more humane through cooperation. For the Middle East and North Africa, the International Organization for Migration's Global Overview of Migration Routes (2025), which tracks migration patterns, risks and deaths along major routes worldwide, offers a mixed picture. Some routes are shifting, but the risks people face remain severe, and in some cases are worsening."

"Across the Mediterranean, arrival numbers alone can be misleading. In 2025, just more than 66,500 people reached Italy and Malta via the Central Mediterranean Route, almost identical to the year before. Arrivals to Greece, Cyprus and Bulgaria along the Eastern Mediterranean Route fell by about 30 percent, while the Western Mediterranean Route saw a modest rise. The Western African Atlantic Route to the Canary Islands recorded a dramatic 62 percent drop."

"Taken in isolation, these figures might suggest reduced pressure on Europe's borders. But lower arrivals do not automatically mean safer journeys. On the Eastern Mediterranean Route, deaths and disappearances nearly doubled in a single year. On the Western African Atlantic Route, deaths barely declined despite the steep drop in arrivals meaning the probability of dying at sea increased. And on the Central Mediterranean Route, more than 1,300 people are known to have died in 2025, keeping it among the world's deadliest migration corridors."

The Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration, adopted in 2018, aims to make migration safer and more humane through international cooperation. Migration route tracking shows a mixed picture for the Middle East and North Africa. Arrival numbers can change without indicating safer travel. Along the Central Mediterranean Route, arrivals to Italy and Malta in 2025 were similar to the previous year, while deaths remained high. Along the Eastern Mediterranean Route, arrivals fell by about 30 percent, yet deaths and disappearances nearly doubled. Along the Western African Atlantic Route to the Canary Islands, arrivals dropped sharply, but deaths barely declined, increasing the likelihood of dying at sea. Route shifting and tighter controls can lengthen journeys and worsen risks.

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