"The Fed Funds upper bound sits at 4%, down 1 percentage point from 5% a year ago, after three consecutive 25 basis point cuts between September and December 2025. Lower funding costs and stable long rates remove a key headwind that punished growth equities through much of 2025."
"Bull markets follow earnings, and the earnings curve is still rising. Forward S&P 500 EPS hit a record high of $344.30 last week, per Yardeni research. A rising forward EPS line means analysts are still revising estimates higher across the index."
"Corporate buybacks are at all-time highs, which functions as a structural bid underneath the market. Over 90% of S&P 500 stocks are still trading below their average analyst price targets despite the rally, suggesting a potential for upward movement."
April 2026 is on track to be one of the best Aprils for the S&P 500 since 1950, with an 8.28% gain. Historically, when the S&P 500 gains 5% or more in April, the rest of the year has never ended negatively. Key factors supporting a positive outlook include the Federal Reserve's pivot to a more accommodative policy, record forward earnings, and high corporate buybacks, which provide a structural support for the market.
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