"For more than a decade, markets have leaned on the four-year halving model to predict peaks, crashes and recoveries. Under that framework, 2025 should have marked the top, with 2026 shaping up as a painful down year. But a growing number of analysts now say that model is no longer reliable, and the next phase of crypto may look very different."
"Galaxy describes the year ahead as "too chaotic to predict," citing wide price ranges in options markets and looming uncertainties such as the US midterm elections and shifting monetary policy, even as it remains optimistic about the longer term. Beyond Bitcoin's price, the reports converge on several powerful trends shaping crypto's next chapter: explosive growth in stablecoins, the rise of prediction markets tied to real-world events and increasing demand for privacy tools as crypto integrates deeper into mainstream finance."
The four-year halving model has long shaped expectations, with 2025 expected as a peak and 2026 a downturn. Major firms present divergent 2026 outlooks: Grayscale forecasts Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs in early 2026 due to rising global debt, fiat debasement, and accelerating institutional adoption via exchange-traded products. Galaxy characterizes 2026 as too chaotic to predict, pointing to wide options price ranges, US midterm elections, and shifting monetary policy. Common themes include explosive stablecoin growth, expansion of prediction markets tied to real-world events, and increasing demand for privacy tools as crypto integrates deeper into mainstream finance.
Read at Cointelegraph
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