#prediction-markets

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Cryptocurrency
fromFortune
9 hours ago

Betting on 5-minute swings on Bitcoin price are the hot new thing on prediction markets | Fortune

Prediction markets now offer ultra-short-term Bitcoin price bets lasting five to fifteen minutes, generating massive trading volumes and attracting mainstream betting activity.
Poker
fromwww.mediaite.com
9 hours ago

Journalist Got Death Threats After Enraged Gamblers Demanded He Change a Report on Iranian Strikes on Israel

Israeli journalist Emanuel Fabian received death threats from gamblers who lost money on a prediction market bet after his reporting on an Iranian missile strike affected the outcome.
Film
fromBusiness Insider
12 hours ago

Kalshi and Polymarket correctly predicted 19 out of 24 Oscar winners. Here are the ones they missed.

Prediction markets correctly predicted 19 of 24 Oscar winners, demonstrating crowd wisdom effectiveness in forecasting entertainment outcomes.
fromReadWrite
16 hours ago

Minnesota proposal targets sports and political prediction markets

Under the bill, a transaction would be illegal if its value "depends on the outcome of future events" tied to certain categories. These include athletic competitions, casino-style contests, political races, or events involving identifiable individuals or groups. Markets connected to wars, terrorism, disasters, public health emergencies, or deaths would also fall under the prohibition.
Poker
NYC real estate
fromCurbed
17 hours ago

The Polymarket Gamblers Betting on the Value of Your Apartment

Polymarket launched prediction markets for New York City median home values, allowing users to bet on real estate prices alongside other speculative events.
Marketing tech
fromWIRED
18 hours ago

Wall Street Is Already Betting on Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are gaining institutional adoption in traditional finance as sophisticated investors use them as forecasting tools for trading decisions, with major platforms like Kalshi expanding partnerships with financial firms.
US Elections
fromSan Jose Spotlight
2 days ago

San Jose mayor behind in polls but ahead on prediction markets - San Jose Spotlight

Online gambling markets rank San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan higher in California's gubernatorial race than traditional polls, despite polls showing him with under 5% favorability.
#oscars-betting
fromThe Verge
2 days ago
Media industry

Prediction markets want the Oscars to be your gateway drug to betting on everything

Prediction market platforms like Kalshi are normalizing gambling on entertainment awards by partnering with established media institutions like Rotten Tomatoes, potentially distorting public understanding of how cultural institutions operate.
fromESPN.com
5 days ago
Miscellaneous

Best Actor, Best Picture and ... Best Casting? Your guide to betting on the Academy Awards

Oscars betting has grown significantly as a non-sports wagering event, with sportsbooks and prediction markets using entertainment trade publications and market movement to set competitive odds.
Media industry
fromThe Verge
2 days ago

Prediction markets want the Oscars to be your gateway drug to betting on everything

Prediction market platforms like Kalshi are normalizing gambling on entertainment awards by partnering with established media institutions like Rotten Tomatoes, potentially distorting public understanding of how cultural institutions operate.
fromESPN.com
5 days ago
Miscellaneous

Best Actor, Best Picture and ... Best Casting? Your guide to betting on the Academy Awards

#insider-trading
fromFortune
1 week ago
Tech industry

Mr Beast fires video editor who Kalshi said had 'near-perfect' trading record, citing insider trading concerns | Fortune

Media industry
fromFortune
1 week ago

MrBeast fired video editor after the predictions market Kalshi accused the employe of insider trading after making $4,000 with "near perfect" success | Fortune

Beast Industries fired a video editor after Kalshi discovered insider trading on prediction markets related to MrBeast videos, prompting regulatory alerts and company-wide trading restrictions.
US politics
fromThe Verge
1 week ago

Prediction markets are playing a dangerous game

Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are expanding into geopolitical events while facing scrutiny for facilitating insider trading and operating as unregulated gambling platforms.
US politics
fromwww.npr.org
2 days ago

With boom in prediction markets, some lawmakers worry about how to police themselves

Prediction market bets on geopolitical events lack regulatory oversight, enabling potential insider trading by government officials without financial disclosure requirements.
US politics
fromThe New Yorker
1 week ago

How to Prevent Insider Trading on Trump's Wars

Anonymous bets on Polymarket predicting a U.S. strike on Iran, placed hours before the attack, generated over $1.2 million in profits, raising concerns about insider trading and the need for prediction market regulation.
fromFortune
1 week ago
Tech industry

Mr Beast fires video editor who Kalshi said had 'near-perfect' trading record, citing insider trading concerns | Fortune

Media industry
fromFortune
1 week ago

MrBeast fired video editor after the predictions market Kalshi accused the employe of insider trading after making $4,000 with "near perfect" success | Fortune

Beast Industries fired a video editor after Kalshi discovered insider trading on prediction markets related to MrBeast videos, prompting regulatory alerts and company-wide trading restrictions.
#cftc-regulation
fromReadWrite
3 days ago
Intellectual property law

CFTC advisory sports prediction markets a 'pragmatic shift' - expert

Intellectual property law
fromReadWrite
3 days ago

CFTC advisory sports prediction markets a 'pragmatic shift' - expert

The CFTC's new advisory signals pragmatic openness to regulating sports prediction markets rather than prohibiting them, contingent on court determinations of legality.
Poker
fromESPN.com
4 days ago

NCAA tournament betting set to tick up to $3.3B in 2026

U.S. sportsbooks are expected to receive $3.3 billion in NCAA basketball tournament bets, representing 6% year-over-year growth despite a three-year 54% increase trend showing slowing momentum.
#sports-betting-regulation
Poker
fromReadWrite
3 days ago

Prediction market ads raise responsible gaming concerns

Legal NCAA basketball tournament wagering is projected to reach $3.3 billion in 2025, up 54% in three years, but unregulated prediction market platforms are increasing advertising while traditional sportsbooks decrease marketing, creating compliance and consumer protection gaps.
Poker
fromFortune
6 days ago

Polymarket taps Palantir AI to police sports betting before it's too late | Fortune

Prediction markets like Polymarket are implementing AI-powered monitoring systems to detect illegal betting and insider trading before regulatory scrutiny intensifies.
Poker
fromReadWrite
3 days ago

Prediction market ads raise responsible gaming concerns

Legal NCAA basketball tournament wagering is projected to reach $3.3 billion in 2025, up 54% in three years, but unregulated prediction market platforms are increasing advertising while traditional sportsbooks decrease marketing, creating compliance and consumer protection gaps.
Poker
fromFortune
6 days ago

Polymarket taps Palantir AI to police sports betting before it's too late | Fortune

Prediction markets like Polymarket are implementing AI-powered monitoring systems to detect illegal betting and insider trading before regulatory scrutiny intensifies.
from24/7 Wall St.
3 days ago

Who Benefits If Fertitta Buys Caesars? 4 Stocks to Watch

Caesars operates more than 50 casino and hotel properties under brands including Caesars, Harrah's, and Horseshoe. Despite $11.49 billion in full-year 2025 revenue, the company carries $11.9 billion in aggregate debt and posted a net loss of $502 million for the full year. Its stock sat near $19.70 at the time of its Q4 earnings filing, well below its 52-week high of $31.58.
Venture
#gambling-regulation
Poker
fromWIRED
2 weeks ago

Former Top Trump Official Is Going After Prediction Markets

Mick Mulvaney leads advocacy coalition arguing prediction markets are gambling and should be regulated by state gambling laws rather than federal derivatives oversight.
Law
fromReadWrite
4 days ago

Kalshi lawsuit challenges Iowa authority over contracts

Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction market, sued Iowa officials to prevent state enforcement of gambling laws against its federally overseen financial contracts.
Venture
fromBusiness Insider
4 days ago

Watch out, prediction markets. The 'super apps' are coming.

Super apps combining betting, financial services, and social features are emerging as the next major trend in fintech and gambling, potentially surpassing standalone prediction market platforms.
US Elections
fromwww.mediaite.com
5 days ago

Rubio Leapfrogs Vance and Newsom to Become Betting Favorite to Win 2028 Presidential Race

Marco Rubio has become the betting favorite for the 2028 presidential election on Kalshi with a 19% chance, surpassing Vice President JD Vance and Governor Gavin Newsom, driven by his prominent role in foreign policy initiatives.
fromReadWrite
5 days ago

Polymarket and Palantir build sports prediction integrity platform

Polymarket is partnering with Palantir Technologies and TWG AI to build a monitoring system designed to detect suspicious activity across sports prediction markets. The companies say the project will combine prediction market data with advanced artificial intelligence tools to identify unusual trading behavior and strengthen confidence in the fast-growing sector.
Privacy professionals
US politics
fromReadWrite
5 days ago

Lawmakers propose ban on death betting markets

Congress introduced the DEATH BETS Act to ban prediction market contracts tied to violence, death, assassination, war, and terrorism to prevent insider profiteering and protect national security.
Social media marketing
fromTechCrunch
6 days ago

In a vote of confidence for Meta's Threads, Kalshi adds sharing feature | TechCrunch

Kalshi integrates with Meta's Threads to allow users to share prediction market charts and discuss forecasts directly on the social platform.
#regulatory-compliance
fromFast Company
6 days ago
Media industry

Is Kalshi vs. Polymarket the next OpenAI vs. Anthropic? What to know about the newest big tech rivalry

fromFast Company
6 days ago
Media industry

Is Kalshi vs. Polymarket the next OpenAI vs. Anthropic? What to know about the newest big tech rivalry

#kalshi
fromFuturism
1 week ago
Poker

Kalshi Gamblers Furious After Company Refuses to Pay Out $54 Million on Ayatollah Khamenei's Death

fromFuturism
1 week ago
Poker

Kalshi Gamblers Furious After Company Refuses to Pay Out $54 Million on Ayatollah Khamenei's Death

Marketing tech
fromReadWrite
1 week ago

Underdog buys CFTC Aristotle exchanges for prediction markets

Underdog acquired two CFTC-regulated exchange entities to operate its own federally compliant prediction market platform for sports and event-based contracts.
Cryptocurrency
fromCointelegraph
3 weeks ago

Polymarket's Lawsuit Could Decide Who Regulates US Prediction Markets

Polymarket's federal lawsuit against Massachusetts will determine whether prediction markets are regulated exclusively by the CFTC or also by individual states.
World news
fromReadWrite
1 week ago

Kalshi prediction market faces lawsuit over Khamenei contract

Kalshi prediction market traders sued for alleged misleading practices and non-payment after refusing to settle contracts following Iran's Supreme Leader's reported death in February 2026.
Marketing
fromAdExchanger
1 week ago

Brands All The Way Down; The Kalshi Kids Aren't Alright | AdExchanger

Modern advertising and branding have replaced quality and innovation as drivers of consumer value, with prediction market companies aggressively targeting young people despite legal age restrictions.
from24/7 Wall St.
1 week ago

Gas Prices Are About to Explode Higher Across America

According to AAA, the national average gas price has jumped to $3.45 per gallon today. One week ago, the average was $2.98 per gallon - a 16% spike in a single week. For context, the all-time record average was $5.016 per gallon, set on June 22, 2022.
World news
fromFuturism
1 week ago

The CEOs of Polymarket and Kalshi Are Locked in a Bitter Feud

Polymarket and Kalshi have emerged as the biggest players in the burgeoning prediction markets industry. The platforms have popularized betting on the outcomes of future events, from when the United States would invade Iran or Venezuela to whether Amazon cofounder Jeff Bezos would show up at this year's Super Bowl.
Cryptocurrency
fromFuturism
1 week ago

Kalshi Sent Bizarre Message to Underage Streamer

Yo brother, legal team confirmed that we can't work with minors rn. Kinda sad tbh. A Kalshi employee's message to a 15-year-old streamer illustrates the company's willingness to recruit underage users before legal concerns forced termination of the partnership.
Cryptocurrency
US news
fromwww.npr.org
1 week ago

Opinion: The immorality of betting on war

Prediction markets allow betting on geopolitical events including military strikes and political upheavals, raising ethical concerns about profiting from advance knowledge of violence and human suffering.
fromBusiness Insider
1 week ago

The Iran war is bringing a new wave of pressure onto prediction markets

Nobody should be making bets on if the United States is going to war, or what words President Trump is going to use in his speech. Those are fundamentally corrupt markets, because there are people on the inside who know the answer, and it perverts the decision-making process.
US politics
Law
fromwww.mediaite.com
1 week ago

Betting Company Sued for Refusing to Pay Out $54 Million to People Who Bet on Khamenei's Fate

Kalshi refused to pay $54 million to users who correctly predicted Iran's supreme leader would leave office by March 1, citing company policy against death-related market payouts.
Business intelligence
from24/7 Wall St.
1 week ago

S&P 500 Rebalancing Tonight: Could Vertiv, SoFi, or Lumentum Join the Index?

S&P 500 index changes for Q1 2026 will be announced tonight, with Vertiv leading prediction markets at 71% probability of addition, followed by SoFi at 24.5%, while index additions typically drive significant stock price appreciation.
fromKotaku
1 week ago

Kalshi Paid Gamer To Hype Prediction Market Until Lawyer Said No

In September, Kalshi briefly signed up a 15-year-old videogame streamer who goes by vert1d online to promote its brand on X as an affiliate. Why didn't the partnership last? Well, someone from Kalshi's legal department apparently found out and was not happy.
Poker
Poker
fromAlleywatch
1 week ago

Novig Raises $75M to Replace the Traditional Sportsbook with a Peer-to-Peer Exchange

Novig operates a commission-free peer-to-peer sports betting exchange that eliminates the house margin, enabling users to be ten times more likely to achieve consistent profitability compared to traditional sportsbooks.
Startup companies
fromEntrepreneur
1 week ago

Kalshi and Polymarket CEOs Are In a Bitter Feud

A personal feud between Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour and Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan is shaping the regulatory future and business strategies of the prediction market industry.
US news
fromwww.npr.org
1 week ago

The Kalshi and Polymarket CEO feud: They hate each other

Kalshi and Polymarket executives engage in intense rivalry over market dominance, regulatory legitimacy, and trademark claims in the prediction market industry.
World politics
fromwww.theguardian.com
1 week ago

From byelections to regime change: how gambling on any event fuelled the rise of prediction markets

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi enable wagering on diverse outcomes from elections to potential nuclear conflict, operating similarly to established UK betting exchanges but with broader market offerings.
Podcast
fromWIRED
1 week ago

'Uncanny Valley': Iran War in the AI Era, Prediction Market Ethics, and Paramount Beats Netflix

The AI industry's integration with the Department of Defense has become central to US-Iran conflict dynamics, while prediction markets face insider trading accusations and ethical scrutiny.
US politics
fromThe Atlantic
1 week ago

Looks Like We've Democratized Insider Trading

Prediction markets enable potential market manipulation through leaked information, raising concerns about insider trading and information asymmetry in event-based betting platforms.
fromwww.aljazeera.com
1 week ago

Senators propose ban on US gov't officials doing prediction market trading

The legislation, if passed, would also curtail other members of the executive branch from profiting on the platforms, or face fines of at least $10,000 for each violation. The bill also states that violators will have to pay back profits made in trades.
US politics
US politics
fromFuturism
1 week ago

Polymarket Gets Major Prediction Completely Wrong After Loudly Boasting About It

Polymarket presents betting market data as breaking news without polling methodology, misleading users about prediction accuracy and market-driven outcomes.
fromReadWrite
1 week ago

Betr and Polymarket partnership adds prediction markets to app

Betr, based in Miami, says the multi-year agreement will bring Polymarket's prediction market infrastructure into the app many customers already use for sports gaming. Once it launches, people will be able to speculate on the likelihood of future events spanning sports, politics, entertainment, and cultural topics without leaving the platform.
Venture
fromBusiness Insider
1 week ago

Kalshi's response to its $2.2 million Iran mess: More fine print

If a person dies, according to the new rule, all bets related to them will be paid out at the odds that existed just before they died or their death was 'reasonably anticipated by market participants.' The rule goes into effect March 17, according to the notice.
Cryptocurrency
fromKotaku
1 week ago

Polymarket Opens Bet On Whether Nuclear Weapon Will Be Used

Polymarket courageously defended its choice to let its users bet on the bombings in an editorial note on the platform, stating that the "ability" to wager on events such as these "is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times."
World news
#nuclear-risk
fromFast Company
1 week ago
Poker

'A threat to the survival of the planet': Insider trading fears rise over Polymarket nuclear war market

World news
fromTruthout
1 week ago

Polymarket Takes Down Betting on Nuclear Detonation After Backlash

Polymarket archived a nuclear detonation betting market after criticism that prediction markets on catastrophic events could influence government decision-making and monetize mass casualties.
fromFast Company
1 week ago
Poker

'A threat to the survival of the planet': Insider trading fears rise over Polymarket nuclear war market

World news
fromTruthout
1 week ago

Polymarket Takes Down Betting on Nuclear Detonation After Backlash

Polymarket archived a nuclear detonation betting market after criticism that prediction markets on catastrophic events could influence government decision-making and monetize mass casualties.
Law
fromReadWrite
1 week ago

Polymarket challenges Michigan gambling authority in court

Polymarket sued Michigan in federal court claiming the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over its federally regulated prediction market platform, preventing state gambling law enforcement.
Venture
fromWIRED
1 week ago

How Is Kalshi Not Gambling?

Kalshi operates as a CFTC-regulated prediction market allowing bets on diverse events across all 50 states, claiming this differs fundamentally from gambling despite functional similarities to sports betting platforms.
Major League Baseball
fromDodger Blue
1 week ago

MLB Considering Partnering With Prediction Markets

MLB is considering partnerships with prediction markets despite recent player gambling scandals involving rigged bets on individual pitches.
Marketing tech
fromReadWrite
1 week ago

AP supplies election results to Kalshi platform

The Associated Press partners with Kalshi to provide real-time U.S. election results and race calls to the prediction market platform for the 2026 primary season.
fromReadWrite
1 week ago

Underdog job cuts and regulatory challenges mount nationwide

At least 125 employees, which is more than 20% of the company's workforce, were let go as Underdog shifts away from some of its traditional offerings and leans more heavily into prediction markets. Teams in fraud operations, marketing, customer support, and product were among those affected.
Venture
Miscellaneous
from24/7 Wall St.
2 weeks ago

DraftKings CEO draws ethical line: won't offer bets on geopolitical death or wars

DraftKings is expanding into prediction markets while maintaining ethical boundaries by prohibiting betting on geopolitical events, wars, and deaths due to insider risks and moral concerns.
World news
fromWIRED
2 weeks ago

Iranian Ayatollah Khamenei's Death Sparks Revolt Among Kalshi Customers

Kalshi's resolution of a $54 million market on Iran's Supreme Leader at the last-traded price before Khamenei's death, rather than at confirmation, sparked trader outrage over undisclosed assassination carve-out rules.
US Elections
fromwww.mediaite.com
2 weeks ago

AP Announces It's Teaming Up With Prediction Market Site Kalshi Ahead of the Midterms

The Associated Press partners with prediction market Kalshi to provide live vote count data and race calls for U.S. elections, enabling users to bet on election outcomes.
National Basketball Association
fromFortune
2 weeks ago

NBA star's partnership with a prediction market raises new questions for a troubled sports betting landscape | Fortune

Giannis Antetokounmpo's partnership with prediction market platform Kalshi after trade deadline speculation raised conflict-of-interest concerns about insider information and market manipulation in sports betting.
Online marketing
fromThe Verge
2 weeks ago

Polymarket defends its decision to allow betting on war as 'invaluable'

Prediction markets harness collective intelligence to generate accurate, unbiased forecasts for significant events, offering superior insights compared to traditional media during crises.
Venture
fromReadWrite
2 weeks ago

FanDuel parent Flutter leans into prediction markets strategy

Flutter Entertainment is increasing investment in prediction markets despite near-term profitability losses, positioning the product as a long-term growth driver with minimal cannibalization of existing sportsbook business.
Cryptocurrency
from24/7 Wall St.
2 weeks ago

BITI Shorts Bitcoin And Popped 25%. Now the Trade Is Getting Complicated

ProShares Short Bitcoin ETF (BITI) profits from Bitcoin price declines through -1x daily inverse exposure, but faces headwinds as institutional demand and recent price rallies undermine its bearish positioning.
#federal-spending
US politics
fromFuturism
2 weeks ago

Man Bet Entire Life Savings of $342,195.63 That Elon Musk Would Fail

A tax economist wagered his entire $342,195.63 life savings on a prediction market bet that Elon Musk's DOGE would fail to cut federal spending as promised, winning $470,300 when the bet succeeded.
US politics
fromReadWrite
2 weeks ago

Congress 'knows prediction markets violate rules, but won't act'

Tribal leaders express concern that prediction markets circumvent established Indian gaming frameworks and federal oversight, but Congress lacks political motivation to address the issue without broader coalition support.
Cryptocurrency
fromThe Atlantic
2 weeks ago

This Looks Like an Insider Bet on Aliens

Large bets on a prediction market suggest traders believe the Trump administration may announce alien life discovery by year-end, potentially indicating inside knowledge or speculation following Obama's alien comments.
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