"The two prediction market platforms correctly identified the winner in 19 out of the 24 categories represented at Sunday night's Academy Awards. That's not quite as good as Polymarket's record with the Golden Globes in January - traders correctly predicted 26 out of 28 winners that night - but it nonetheless demonstrates the markets' ability to channel the wisdom of the crowds, at least most of the time."
"Prediction markets correctly identified the winner in all of the major categories, including best picture, best director, best actor, best actress, and best screenplay. But in the following five categories, the winning film was not favored by prediction markets."
"Best cinematography: "One Battle After Another" was the overwhelming favorite to win, with odds well over 75% on both Kalshi and Polymarket in the days leading up to the awards show. But the Oscar ultimately went to Autumn Durald Arkapaw from "Sinners.""
Prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket successfully predicted Oscar winners in 19 out of 24 categories at the Academy Awards. This performance, while slightly lower than their Golden Globes accuracy of 26 out of 28 categories, demonstrates the platforms' ability to aggregate collective knowledge effectively. The markets correctly identified winners across all major categories including best picture, director, actor, actress, and screenplay. However, five categories deviated from market predictions, including best cinematography where "One Battle After Another" was heavily favored but lost to "Sinners," and best animated short film where "Butterfly" was favored over the winning "The Girl Who Cried Pearls." Notable participants, including celebrity investors, engaged in significant betting on these outcomes.
Read at Business Insider
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