"Quantum computers are coming, with a potential computing power almost beyond comprehension. That's a given. The known threat is to current public key encryption methods, such as RSA and ECC, which will both be crackable through Shor's algorithm in short timeframes. It is believed that nation states and advanced criminal gangs are engaged in a widespread harvest now, decrypt later (HNDL) campaign - steal and store data and secrets today, even if they are encrypted, because they can be decrypted later with quantum computers."
"But the timing is unquantified. Quantum computers exist today but are too 'small' to be a threat. Most projections do not expect a powerful quantum computer to be available within the next five years. But the fly in the ointment is the emergence of artificial intelligence, which could be used to speed the development of quantum (for example, by developing more efficient error correction modes), followed by automating the use of quantum power when it arrives."
"SecurityWeek's Cyber Insights 2026 examines expert opinions on the expected evolution of more than a dozen areas of cybersecurity interest over the next 12 months. We spoke to hundreds of individual experts to gain their expert opinions. Here we explore quantum computing and its threat to current encryption, where the use of AI might shorten the timescale to powerful quantum; and the unknown threat of powerful quantum automated by advanced AI."
Quantum computers threaten public-key encryption methods such as RSA and ECC by enabling rapid decryption via Shor's algorithm. Adversaries are conducting harvest-now-decrypt-later campaigns by stealing and storing encrypted data for future decryption. Present quantum devices remain too small to pose an immediate threat, and most projections do not expect powerful quantum machines within five years. Artificial intelligence could accelerate quantum development by improving error correction and automate effective use of quantum power once available. The exact timelines and foreign government capabilities remain uncertain, creating strategic risk but allowing some preparation time.
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