"Nearly 1.3 million mortgages including more than 500,000 originated in 2025 carry rates between 6.875% and 6.99%, the most sensitive group to recent rate declines. ICE cited data from the Mortgage Bankers Association, which found that refinance activity hit a 17-week high in the week ending Jan. 16, with refinances making up 62% of all applications. ICE estimates about two-thirds of these originations were rate-and-term refis."
"Even small reductions toward 6% rates can significantly boost affordability, particularly for homeowners who could refinance into a lower rate and monthly payments, Andy Walden, head of mortgage and housing market research at ICE, said in a statement. When rates hit 6.04% on January 9, the number of homeowners in the money to refinance jumped by 20% and affordability hit its best level in four years."
Nearly 1.3 million mortgages, including over 500,000 originated in 2025, carry rates between 6.875% and 6.99%, marking a highly rate-sensitive cohort. Refinance activity reached a 17-week high the week ending Jan. 16, with refinances accounting for 62% of applications and roughly two-thirds estimated as rate-and-term transactions. A strong lock-in persists: homeowners with mortgages below 5% decreased modestly from 39.4 million to 37.2 million, while sub-3% borrowers fell from 12.6 million to 12.1 million, leaving about 95% of low-rate borrowers in place. A brief dip to 6.04% increased refinance eligibility by 20% and improved affordability to a four-year high, yet national home-price-to-income ratios remain around 4.8 to 1 and regional and borrower differences sustain structural affordability challenges.
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