"Friday afternoon through Saturday night is the cleanest part of the forecast, with guidance tightly clustered on a modest but useful all-snow event. Snow should fill in during the second half of Friday, peak Friday night into early Saturday, then turn more showery on Saturday with another upslope push before tapering early Sunday. Snow levels stay below the 1,100-foot base the whole time and mostly sit near valley floor, so elevation is not a limiting factor."
"Most guidance lands in the 4″-8″ zone for the resort, and the forecast call is 5″-6″. Ratios look near 10-14:1 during the steadiest snow, which points to moderately dense new snow at first, then they improve into roughly 14-18:1 late Saturday as colder air arrives. Southwest to west winds also ramp up, with gusts commonly in the 45-65 mph range on exposed terrain."
"Guidance then converges strongly on a very different setup from Sunday night through Monday, with little doubt about the wind and warmth but much less agreement on the backside snow. South winds increase hard Sunday night, and Monday looks rough on exposed lifts and ridgelines with sustained ridgetop wind in the 35-50 mph range and higher gusts into the 60s and 80s."
A compact storm system brings 5-6 inches of resort-wide snow to Smugglers' Notch from Friday afternoon through Saturday night, with snow levels remaining below 1,100 feet throughout. Snow ratios transition from moderately dense 10-14:1 to lighter 14-18:1 as colder air arrives late Saturday. Southwest to west winds gust 45-65 mph on exposed terrain, making sheltered areas preferable for skiing. Sunday night through Monday brings a dramatic shift with strong south winds, ridgetop gusts reaching 60-80 mph, and snow levels rising above the 3,640-foot summit, causing precipitation to fall as rain during the warmest period.
#winter-storm-forecast #snow-accumulation #wind-conditions #temperature-fluctuations #ski-resort-weather
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