Friday afternoon through Saturday night is the cleanest part of the forecast, with guidance tightly clustered on a modest but useful all-snow event. Snow should fill in during the second half of Friday, peak Friday night into early Saturday, then turn more showery on Saturday with another upslope push before tapering early Sunday. Snow levels stay below the 1,100-foot base the whole time and mostly sit near valley floor, so elevation is not a limiting factor.
Confidence is highest from Thursday night through Friday night, when guidance is tightly clustered on a fast clipper crossing the Upper Midwest with snow spreading west to east and peak rates overnight. Lutsen, Giants Ridge, Whitecap, Mount Bohemia, and the northern Lower Michigan hills should land near 4″-9″, while Granite Peak looks more borderline with wetter 3″-4″ totals and snow levels briefly rising toward 1,800 feet.
From Sunday afternoon through early Tuesday, guidance converges on timing but diverges on intensity, so confidence is highest in a light event rather than a strong storm. Snow should be most persistent Sunday evening into Monday night, then taper Tuesday morning. The conservative near-term expectation is light accumulation for many resorts, with localized higher-terrain totals near 7 cm in the western and southern Alps.
From late Saturday night through Sunday, guidance is converging on timing and warmer snow levels but diverging on intensity and ridge-top wind magnitude, with the most consistent signal for light snowfall in the northern and central ranges and limited coverage farther south. Most mountains should stay in the low single digits for accumulation during this first push, with favored terrain near the Continental Divide able to approach around 4 inches by Sunday evening.
If a 10-pound sphere of ice about 10 centimeters in diameter were to fall, he said, "very quickly" - in about three seconds - "it would reach a terminal velocity of close to 50 or 60 mph." "You're talking about being potentially hit by something 10 pounds going 50 miles an hour. Uh, not pleasant."
