The local elections in England reveal a significant decline for both the Labour and Conservative parties, facing challenges from a strengthening populist right and a fragmented left. Labour, despite last year's victory, is struggling to maintain enthusiasm, while the Conservatives face potential losses from both Reform UK and Liberal Democrats. As panic sets in within Tory ranks over anticipated defeats, a reconfiguration of British politics may emerge, potentially mirroring historical alliances to avoid mutual ruin. The shifting landscape suggests a looming political shift ahead of the next general election in 2029.
English politics isn't shaking so much as crumbling, too busy fighting itself to notice. The polls could yet be wrong, but that looks unlikely.
Labour's election guru, Morgan McSweeney, was to chase a thin sliver of the party's Reform-minded voters. But this risks alienating the party's progressive base.
Panic is setting into Tory ranks, as MPs confront not just heavy defeat but existential collapse in a party paralyzed by public arguments over its future.
A new political settlement may emerge before the next general election in 2029. The Conservatives could by then find themselves negotiating a second coupon election.
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