Scotland's first minister, John Swinney, proposed a three-stage plan for independence: garnering support, pressuring Westminster for a referendum, and achieving victory in the next elections. Support for independence is around 50%, but the UK government refuses to permit a new referendum, and the SNP's backing stands at about one-third. A likely minority government outcome complicates potential mandates for independence. The upcoming elections may result in a fragmented parliament, making legislative passes difficult for Swinney, leading to internal party conflicts and lowered expectations for independence beyond 2026.
In July, Scotland's first minister, John Swinney, set out a three-stage plan to achieve separation from the United Kingdom. Part one would build the highest levels of support possible for independence.
Support for independence hovers around the 50% mark, but the UK government will not concede a referendum, while the SNP currently has the support of only about a third of voters.
Mr Swinney could form a minority government next May, but not a coalition with a majority, complicating the independence mandate.
The reality is that independence is likely to remain off the table well beyond 2026, presenting a challenge for the SNP.
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