"A chart making the rounds on social media has sparked intense debate about the state of the American economy. Since November 2022, when ChatGPT launched, the S&P 500 has surged more than 70% while job openings have plummeted roughly 30%. The juxtaposition has earned the graphic a foreboding nickname: the " scariest chart in the world." At first glance, the divergence appears to tell a simple story: that artificial intelligence has fractured the economy, enriching investors while devastating workers."
"The data itself is accurate. Job openings peaked at 11.5 million in March 2022, the highest level since the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey began in 2000. By August 2025, that figure had fallen to 7.18 million. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has climbed from around 3,840 in November 2022 to approximately 6,688 by September 2025, representing a gain of roughly 74% over that period."
"Thompson says the primary culprit is not artificial intelligence, but monetary policy. Job openings did not peak when ChatGPT debuted in November 2022-they peaked in March 2022, the same month the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates. The Fed approved a quarter-percentage-point increase on March 16, 2022, its first hike in more than three years, launching a campaign that would eventually see 11 rate increases through July 2023."
Since November 2022 the S&P 500 rose roughly 74% to about 6,688 by September 2025 while job openings fell from a JOLTS peak of 11.5 million in March 2022 to 7.18 million by August 2025. The split between hiring demand and stock-market gains is unprecedented in JOLTS history. Federal Reserve rate hikes began March 16, 2022 and comprised 11 increases through July 2023. Higher interest rates made borrowing more expensive, reduced investment and spending, and suppressed hiring. ChatGPT debuted in November 2022, after job openings had already peaked, making monetary policy the primary explanatory factor.
Read at Fortune
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