"In 2024, Republicans secured a sweep of the federal government by winning majorities in the House and Senate in addition to propelling Donald Trump back into the White House. Since then, Democrats have shifted their focus to 2026 with the hopes of taking back some congressional power to prevent Trump from continuing to enact his polarizing agenda. As Enten noted, the prediction market Kalshi had the Democrats' chances of retaking the House at a staggering 83% in April 2025."
"We saw them in an 83% chance, but those odds have gone plummeting down, Enten said. Now, we're talking about just a 63% chance, while the GOP's chances up like a rocket, up like gold, up from 17% to now a 37% chance. So what looked like a pretty clear, likely Democratic win in the House come next year has become much closer to a toss-up at this point, although still slightly leaning Democratic."
Republicans won a federal sweep in 2024, capturing majorities in the House and Senate and returning Donald Trump to the presidency. Democrats have concentrated on the 2026 midterms to regain congressional power and block further agenda actions. Prediction market Kalshi placed Democrats' odds of retaking the House at about 83% in April 2025; those odds have fallen to roughly 63%, while Republican odds rose from 17% to about 37%. The shift turns a likely Democratic outcome into a near toss-up. Contributing factors include Democrats lagging 2017 midterm polling trajectories and potential substantial Republican gains from redistricting.
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