President Trump fired economist Erika McEntarfer after a disappointing jobs report, claiming the data was "RIGGED," despite no evidence of impropriety. This incident has sparked concerns about the trustworthiness of government statistics. Comparatively, China's economic data reliability has improved over the years, transitioning from an inflated, growth-driven assessment by local officials to a focus on innovation and reducing disparities. Experts note that the Chinese government's approach to economic data has evolved significantly since its earlier practices.
In 2007, the former Chinese premier told the US ambassador to China that his province's GDP figures were "man-made." To understand how his region was doing, Li Keqiang said he instead tracked electricity consumption, freight volumes, and bank loans, a system The Economist later dubbed "the Li Keqiang index."
Over 15 years later, experts say things have changed significantly. The Chinese government now releases more economic data and it's generally considered more reliable. "The data have improved dramatically over time," says Nicholas R. Lardy, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics who has been writing about the Chinese economy since the 1970s.
One reason for this is that Beijing stopped grading local officials primarily based on the economic performance of their regions. That growth-at-all-costs mindset had led to societal problems like widespread pollution.
In response, the Chinese Communist Party began putting more emphasis on nuanced ideals, like fostering innovation and reducing the urban-rural divide. That, in turn, reduced the incentive to inflate data.
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