The war on Iran is already upending the Middle East. Look to the Gulf states to see how | Nesrine Malik

"The past week of US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran, and Iran's retaliations, have brought into focus what these countries export (oil and gas) and what they import (tax avoiders and labour). But beyond thinking about energy-supply challenges to the global economy and engaging in the cheap and popular sport of smirking at influencers in war zones, we must remember that the current conflagration will have profound consequences for the entire region."

"This is not just about the US, Israel and Iran; it is about a complex, overlapping political order in the Middle East that is much more fragile than it looks. Amid all the ways the region has been changing over the past few years, the low-key evolution of three Gulf countries in particular has been the most significant."

"The 7 October attacks, which arguably set off the chain of events that led to this moment, were partly inspired by Hamas's desire to stop the normalisation process that Saudi Arabia was undertaking with Israel; this was following the UAE and others signing the 2020 Abraham accords with Israel."

Gulf states are commonly perceived as static due to their wealth and absolute monarchical systems, yet Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE have undergone rapid transformations with profound regional implications. These countries pursue complex, sometimes conflicting global and regional agendas affecting areas from Libya to Palestine. Saudi Arabia's normalization efforts with Israel partly motivated the October 7 attacks, as Hamas sought to prevent this diplomatic shift following the 2020 Abraham Accords signed by UAE and others. The region's political order is more fragile than appearances suggest. Saudi Arabia has liberalized domestically, overturning religious and social conventions. Despite recent international criticism over human rights concerns, the kingdom has repositioned itself strategically. These three nations' evolving policies demonstrate the Middle East's underlying instability beneath its seemingly entrenched power structures.

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