#electoral-forecasting

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#political-polling #prediction-markets #california-governor-race #betting-markets-vs-traditional-polls
US Elections
fromSan Jose Spotlight
22 hours ago

San Jose mayor behind in polls but ahead on prediction markets - San Jose Spotlight

Online gambling markets rank San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan higher in California's gubernatorial race than traditional polls, despite polls showing him with under 5% favorability.
fromwww.theguardian.com
4 months ago

Britain's two-party politics is fragmenting: what unintended consequences await? | Andy Beckett

Only six years ago, at the 2019 election, the Conservatives and Labour got 76% of the vote between them, coming first and second in both votes and seats, as they have at every general election since 1922. Yet in most opinion polls now, the two parties around which politics is usually arranged at Westminster, in the media, and in the minds of millions of voters, activists and party donors have a combined support of less than 40%.
UK politics
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