The average perceived probability of finding a job if one's current role was lost fell to 43.1% in December 2025, a 4.2% drop from the year before, according to recent data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. It marks a record low since the surveys started tracking the data back in 2013, and the report notes that several demographics are driving rock-bottom employment expectations.
The findings reflect an environment of mounting pressures both within, and outside, of businesses. Internally, a growing number of people are delaying their retirement and choosing to work for longer; earlier this year nearly two fifths (36%) of employees said they had already, or were considering delaying their retirement because they wanted to continue working, or due to financial reasons (34%).
Patricia Willson, 93, stares intently at her leg as her nurse unwraps layers of bandages, revealing a scar that, to Willson's elation, is nowhere near as gruesome as it had been months ago. Hunched over from a fractured back, Willson scrolls through her phone to remind her nurse what the scar had looked like. Last December, she sliced her leg open on a box. A few months later, the three-inch gash got infected.
Luis Bautista, 82, is "learning to speak to AI." He's studying prompt engineering strategies online, reading about the companies accepted into Y Combinator, and watching AI videos on YouTube. "When I turned 80, I asked myself, 'How do I want to finish?'" Bautista said. "The first answer that came to my mind was, 'I want to finish strong.' Then I need to learn AI."
The company used data from the BLS's Labor Force Statistics Current Population Survey, O*NET Online, and the BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook to create the report using several parameters, including removing jobs with salaries lower than $49,500 and roles that require education higher than a Bachelor's degree. The occupations listed also had to have at least 100,000 employees who were 55 or older.