#political-betting

#political-betting

Prediction markets reveal volatility in betting odds for political candidates, complicating their ability to predict outcomes accurately.

Prediction markets consistently provide more accurate election forecasts than traditional polls and media outlets.

Prediction markets like Polymarket outperformed traditional polls in forecasting Trump's election victory, marking a pivotal moment for the betting culture in politics.

Bettors give an 86% chance of pardons for January 6 protestors and a 78% chance for Ulbricht, indicating high public interest.

A recent court ruling may allow election-based prediction markets to expand in the U.S.