"Kalshi bettors now give Rubio a 19% chance of succeeding President Donald Trump, while Newsom and Vance both have an 18% chance. The secretary of state is not the favorite on Kalshi's rival Polymarket, though, where he has a 16% chance; Vance (21%) is the favorite on Polymarket, with Newsom behind him at 18%."
"Rubio's stock appears to be rising as he has played a key role in Operation Epic Fury against Iran and Trump's capture of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela. And the president this week floated the idea Rubio could soon lead a friendly takeover of Cuba."
"Rubio has shied away from talking about potentially beating Vance to become the GOP candidate, telling Vanity Fair late last year If JD Vance runs for president, he's going to be our nominee, and I'll be one of the first people to support him."
Prediction markets show shifting odds for the 2028 presidential race. On Kalshi, Secretary of State Marco Rubio leads with a 19% chance, followed by Vice President JD Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom at 18% each. However, Polymarket shows different rankings, with Vance favored at 21%, Newsom at 18%, and Rubio at 16%. Traditional gambling sites like DraftKings and MGM also favor Vance. Rubio's rising odds correlate with his visible role in Operation Epic Fury against Iran and Trump's Venezuela initiatives. Trump has suggested Rubio could lead efforts to transition Cuba from communist governance. Despite speculation, Rubio has publicly committed to supporting Vance if he runs for president.
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