#prediction-markets

#prediction-markets

"It was not Zohran Mamdani's debate performance. It was Curtis Sliwa's statement after the debate that he is not leaving that has tipped the odds to 90% for Mamdani," Ackman wrote on X.

Republicans are in disbelief. Jerrauld "Jay" Jones, the Democratic candidate for Virginia attorney general in this year's elections, has yet to drop out of the race despite nauseous texts that reveal he once fantasized about gunning down then-Speaker of the Virginia House Todd Gilbert, a Republican. But, laying aside decency and decorum, why exactly should Jones drop out of the race?

Robinhood Markets Inc. is exploring an expansion of its prediction markets product to countries outside of the US, a move that would broaden the reach of the already fast-growing and often controversial industry. The brokerage has been speaking to overseas regulators like the UK's Financial Conduct Authority about how it might offer prediction markets locally, as demand for the space continues to grow.

* Judge considering sanctioning DOJ lawyers over repeated statements compromising fairness of Mangione trial. [ NY Times] * Roberta Kaplan representing Disney shareholders seeking discovery to determine if Kimmel suspension demonstrates a breach of fiduciary duties. [ Semafor] * Group challenging SEC gag rule, which prevents parties who voluntarily settle enforcement cases from turning around and telling the market they did nothing wrong, seeks en banc review from the Ninth Circuit. But, you know, you don't have to settle. [ Law.com]

Tremor tracks volatility on Polymarket , a prediction market that lets traders bet on the outcome of future events. The goal of Saravanan's new tool: Spot sudden swings and identify potentially valuable situations where insiders may know more than the general population. "If the chance of a ceasefire in a war jumps from 50% to 80%, but there's no news, it's likely someone with inside info is acting on Polymarket," Saravanan told me.

"Prediction markets remind me of crypto 15 years ago: a new asset class on a path to trillions," Matt Huang, co-founder and managing partner at Paradigm, told TechCrunch in an emailed statement. "There's no better team than Kalshi to scale prediction markets and reshape how people think about everything from elections and economic markets to weather and sports."