The federal government plans to spend a total of $7 trillion in fiscal 2025 but only bring in $5.16 trillion in revenue. That leaves a deficit of approximately $1.8 trillion. The big four expenditures Social Security, Medicare/Medicaid, debt interest and defense account for nearly three-quarters of national spending. All other programs for other Cabinet departments and hundreds of agencies, including for social services, infrastructure, farmers, Amtrak, and on and on spend about the same amount each year as the $1.8 trillion we incurred in debt.
With U.S. national debt now topping $37.8 trillion and interest payments exceeding $1.2 trillion, Kelly said the debt-to-GDP ratio-already at 99.9%-will likely keep rising even under moderate growth. Despite tariff revenues and temporary deficit relief, he cautioned that political choices or a slowdown could quickly worsen the fiscal picture, urging investors to diversify away from U.S. assets before "going broke slowly" turns fast.