"The modal Kalshi forecast, or the outcome deemed most likely by traders, has had a perfect track record from 2022 through June. "We find the Kalshi median and mode have a perfect forecast record on the day before the FOMC meeting which represents a statistically significant improvement over the fed funds futures forecast," the study's authors Anthony M. Diercks, Jared Dean Katz, and Jonathan H. Wright wrote."
"Katz, co-author of the working paper and a PH.D. student at the Northwestern University Kellogg School of Management, told Fortune that Kalshi's ability to allow up-to-the-minute decision changes gives the platform an edge above the traditional survey of primary dealers conducted by the New York Fed. Kalshi predictions "are on par and they react instantly to news, or at a much higher click to news, than waiting six weeks for the next survey," Katz said."
"Prediction markets have amassed stronger appeal from traders in the past year, growing their annualized trading volume from $300 million to about $40 billion to $50 billion since August 2025, according to a December report from Foresight Ventures, a crypto venture capital firm. Kalshi allows traders to see how decisions track daily, or even by the minute, providing agility that"
Kalshi predicted President Trump's 2024 election and Zohran Mamdani's Democratic nomination in the New York mayoral primary despite polling disadvantages. Kalshi's modal and median forecasts recorded perfect predictions for Federal Reserve rate decisions on the day before FOMC meetings from 2022 through June, representing a statistically significant improvement over fed funds futures. The platform enables up-to-the-minute trading and rapid reaction to news, offering greater responsiveness than six-week primary dealer surveys. Prediction market annualized trading volume expanded dramatically from about $300 million to roughly $40–50 billion since August 2025, and Kalshi displays decision probabilities in real time.
Read at Fortune
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