"Kalshi bans what it calls 'violent markets, including war and kidnapping'—although it does allow markets on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—saying that markets should 'not incentivise harm,' while it also requires proof of identity."
"Growing scrutiny has created a business opportunity for a wave of start-ups selling tools to help users profit by copying suspected 'insiders.' The platforms are creating new rules to try to root them out and make it clear they don't allow that activity."
"Polymarket has itself published a list of the 10 most-copied wallets in a blog post, including recommendations for traders on strategies to follow and pitfalls to avoid when copy-trading."
"Another recent study has found prediction markets reflect the 'wisdom of an informed minority' rather than the 'wisdom of crowds.' Only 3 percent of all accounts generate the bulk of price discovery."
Kalshi emphasizes its status as the largest regulated platform in the US, banning violent markets and requiring identity verification. In contrast, Polymarket allows anonymous transactions and does not require identity proof. The scrutiny of these platforms has led to the emergence of start-ups offering tools to track insider activity. Kalshi and Polymarket claim to harness collective wisdom for event forecasting, but studies indicate that prediction markets reflect the insights of a small informed minority rather than the broader crowd.
Read at Ars Technica
Unable to calculate read time
Collection
[
|
...
]